The good people of Thailand have a long history of meekly acquiescing to coups d’état. So it was not altogether surprising that they appeared to collectively breathe a sigh of relief when Abhisit Vejjajiva emerged from the siege of Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports with just enough parliamentary votes to become Thailand’s 27th Prime Minister. By-elections held on January 11 gave him an unexpected boost. The Democrat Party picked up a handful seats; its performance in a number of constituencies in Northern and Central Thailand improved markedly. The Thai people, …

It looks really bad for Thaksin – and not merely because of the number of seats the alliance of Peua Thai and Pracharaj was able to win in yesterday’s by-election. Considering Newin’s defection, retaining 10 of the PPP’s old 13 seats is not a terrible result. Nor should the performance of the competition be considered much of a setback. Chat Thai Pattana basically held steady. The Democrat Party performed well in Central Thailand as well as the North, netting 7 additional seats. But the Democrats are no more a national …

Based on the results of the by-elections reported thus far, it looks like the alliance of Peua Thai/Pracharaj came well short. These results are bad news for Thaksin. That’s not because the Democrats have any chance to become a dominant political party, but rather because it looks like local politicians and faction leaders may be re-asserting their dominance over the unprecedentedly cohesive, centralized party organization Thaksin built. Just like the man in the picture wanted. More in-depth analysis tomorrow.