The good people of Thailand have a long history of meekly acquiescing to coups d’état. So it was not altogether surprising that they appeared to collectively breathe a sigh of relief when Abhisit Vejjajiva emerged from the siege of Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports with just enough parliamentary votes to become Thailand’s 27th Prime Minister. By-elections held on January 11 gave him an unexpected boost. The Democrat Party picked up a handful seats; its performance in a number of constituencies in Northern and Central Thailand improved markedly. The Thai people, …

It looks really bad for Thaksin – and not merely because of the number of seats the alliance of Peua Thai and Pracharaj was able to win in yesterday’s by-election. Considering Newin’s defection, retaining 10 of the PPP’s old 13 seats is not a terrible result. Nor should the performance of the competition be considered much of a setback. Chat Thai Pattana basically held steady. The Democrat Party performed well in Central Thailand as well as the North, netting 7 additional seats. But the Democrats are no more a national …

Based on the results of the by-elections reported thus far, it looks like the alliance of Peua Thai/Pracharaj came well short. These results are bad news for Thaksin. That’s not because the Democrats have any chance to become a dominant political party, but rather because it looks like local politicians and faction leaders may be re-asserting their dominance over the unprecedentedly cohesive, centralized party organization Thaksin built. Just like the man in the picture wanted. More in-depth analysis tomorrow.

This week is the first real test of Thaksin’s prospects of coming back from the dead. The election of replacements to the executives of the disbanded People Power Party and Chat Thai Party (at least, the 29 of them who were “constituency MPs” – that is, elected in one, two, and three-member districts under the “block vote” system with nominal ballots) will go a long way towards showing how strong the newly formed Peua Thai Party really is. More importantly, the election result itself might help determine the PTP’s fate. …

I am not generally in the business of giving unsolicited (much less unpaid) advice to politicians like Thaksin Shinawatra. But in the (high-minded, I know) spirit of the old adage – the enemy of my enemy is my friend – I will indulge in a half-assed bit of strategizing to sketch out a path for a possible return to political power of a Thaksin nominee (if not Thaksin himself).
 
The conventional wisdom is that Thaksin is dead in the water. The election of Abhisit to Prime Minister, thanks to the votes …

It promised to be a nail-biter. In part it was because the rules of parliamentary procedure  are somewhat different in Thailand from many other parliamentary democracies. So instead of a straight, up-or-down on one prospective cabinet at a time,  the nominees for Prime Minister — Police General Pracha Promnok and pretty boy chickenshit Abhisit Vejjajiva — would go head-to-head. In part it was because of the yet unknown implications the vote might have for Thailand’s short- and medium-term stability. Would the vote bring the PAD back out to the streets? Would the …

In the days since the PAD was ordered by its patrons high up to vacate Suvarnabhumi airport, by far the biggest news has been that former Thaksin loyalist Newin Chidchob and his faction of 30-some Members of Parliament jumped the fence, paving the way for Abhisit Vejjajiva’s assumption of the Prime Ministerial post. It remains to be seen whether Newin’s faction is really that unified behind its leader — or whether, for that matter, the newly formed Peua Thai party will manage to buy back Newin’s MPs. Nonetheless, thanks to …