The map below visualizes predictions for the 375 constituency races published in Thai Rath and reported by BangkokPundit on Friday.

Note that: 1) The map was put together to indicate seats won by each party by province, so the location of the dots may not (likely will not) correspond to the exact constituency; 2) The Thai Rath predictions had some missing information, which I filled in with more/less educated guesses. As a result, there could be some minor mistakes about both seat totals for each party and the locations of seats picked up by each party. For example, Thai Rath predicted Pheu Thai would win 192 constituency seats, but this map has 195 red dots; all regional totals align except for the central region, where the Thai Rath did not give predictions for Sa Kaeo province. Given that Sa Kaeo is a stronghold of Sanoh Thiengthong’s clan, I provisionally assigned those seats to Pheu Thai.

The reason why this map is useful is that it provides a basis upon which we might interpret results as they come in. The big question in this election seems to be whether Pheu Thai will win a majority or a mere plurality. Because Thai Rath’s predictions indicate that Pheu Thai will win just slightly over half of the seats (192 constituency seats; 60 party list), to the extent that the results of exit polls and early vote tallies begin deviate from the baseline offered by this map (one way or the other), it might be possible to make some projections as to how the election is going to turn out. To make things more manageable, my focus will be primarily on information suggesting that Pheu Thai might pick up some seats it was expected to lose or drop some seats it was predicted to win.

Will be updating this throughout the day with information from both English/Thai sources. Rather than simply aggregate information, which others can do much more effectively/exhaustively, I will try to add some analysis and projections to make things interesting. Note that this is done mostly for fun and with rather rudimentary tools, so take any analysis/predictions made in the heat of the moment with a grain of salt.

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15:07 Exit poll showing Pheu Thai with 313 seats (247 constituency + 66 party list). That would mean about 50 constituency races more than predicted. As for the party list, 66 seats means that Pheu Thai received something like 52-53% of the vote, versus 36% for Democrats (45 seats in the party list).

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15:23 The Nation compares exit polls from three polling organizations:

Suan Dusit: Pheu Thai 313, Democrats 152
Sripathum: Pheu Thai 290, Democrats 152
ABAC: Pheu Thai 299, Democrats 132

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16:19: Based on Election Commission results, lopsided numbers in early tallies confirm Democrats win all seats in the following provinces as expected: Phatthalung (3), Trang (4), Songkhla (8), Chumpol (3), Ranong (1), Surat Thani (6), Phuket (2), Phang Nga (1), Nakhon Si Thammarat (9), Krabi (3). This gives the Dems all 40 seats they were expected to win in these provinces. In Satun, Democrats will win constituency 2 but  in constituency 1 the Chat Thai Pattana candidate is ahead.

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16:29: We can probably go ahead and give the Democrats all seats in Prachuap Khiri Khan (3) and Phetchaburi (3). Brings their total in the South (except for three border provinces) to 47 out of 48 seats they were expected to win. Satun 1 still too close to call.

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16:36 Probably safe to say the Democrats pick up all seats in Trat (1), Chanthaburi (3), Rayong (4), and Thak (3). To update, that means they hold on to 59 out of the 60 seats they were expected to get in these provinces and those considered above.

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16:51: Looking at North/Northeastern provinces where Pheu Thai was expected to win all seats. Based on early results, Pheu Thai is on track to win all races in: Lampang (4), Lamphun (2), Phrae (3), Nan (3), Phayao (3), Chiang Rai (7), Nong Khai (3), Bueng Kan (2), Mahasarakham (5), Kalasin (6), Mukdahan (2), Nong Bua Lamphu (3), Khon Kaen (10), Udon Thani (9). This for a total of 62 seats. Some races in Loei, Chaiyaphum, Sakon Nakhon, Si Saket still too early or too close to call.

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17:04 Early indications of Pheu Thai pick-ups (compared to predictions above) in the following provinces: Yasothon (should win all 3), Nakhon Phanom (should win all 4), Roi Et (should win 7 out of 8), and Phetchabun (should win 5 out of 6). This would be a net pick-up (compared to predictions) of 5 seats compared to predictions.

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17: 07 In Buriram, Bhum Jai Thai looks on track to win 7 seats, lose 1 to Pheu Thai, with one more race too close to call.

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17:54 Pheu Thai was expected to win 89 seats in NE. By my calculations, it’s well ahead in 86, slightly ahead in 14, slightly behind in 15.

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18:09 Pheu Thai was expected to win 43 seats in the North. By my calculations, it’s well ahead in 42, slightly ahead in 6, slightly behind in 4.

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18:31 Pheu Thai was expected to win 42 seats in the Central region (except Bangkok). By my calculations, it is way ahead in 24, slightly ahead in 16, slightly behind in 14.

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18:41 In Bangkok, Pheu Thai seems to be well ahead in 3 races, the Democrats in 6. The Democrats are slightly ahead in 16 races, Pheu Thai slightly ahead in 8 races.

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19:00 Overall, Pheu Thai had been predicted to win 195 constituency seats. At last count, Pheu Thai candidates were well ahead in 156, slightly ahead in 43, and slightly behind in 50.

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20:14 Pheu Thai now well ahead in 174 races, slightly ahead in 28, slightly behind in 25.

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21:26 Results now trickling in very slowly, so this will be the last update of the evening. Pheu Thai is well ahead in 187 constituencies, narrowly ahead in 18, trailing narrowly in 20. That should be good for at least 205 constituency seats, better than expected by 10+ seats.

Preliminary analysis is that Pheu Thai over-performed in the Northeast (+17) and in the North (+6), underperformed slightly in the Central region (-4), and did much worse than expected in Bangkok (-8).

Adding the 60 party list seats, Pheu Thai should end up with something in the neighborhood of 265.