Comments on: Twilight of the Idols http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/ Tue, 09 Mar 2010 11:26:38 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.8.4 hourly 1 By: Sam Munich http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-657 Sam Munich Sat, 25 Apr 2009 06:19:18 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-657 Quite frankly I'm glad it's over, even though I took a holiday from Songkran and followed things from Cambodia. However I think we have a basic problem here with the Reds: I can't recall anything they wanted, that was not directly related to Toxin being able to come back and continue his defrauding of the nation. And vice versa I think without Toxin's money they would not have been coming to Bangkok/Pattaya in these numbers. So until they come up with something, that is requesting genuinely democratic improvements I see them as a bunch of upcountry hooligans, who enjoyed it to come to the big town and create a mess and being paid for it. I doubt there is any political awareness among them as to what they want beside Toxin to come back. I talked to a bunch of Red-shirt taxi drivers and they only proved this. If you tell them, that they shot themselves in their foot, because now a lot less tourists will come and thus they will have less passengers, they just laughed it of,- that kind of helpless laugh of people, who just don't understand, what you are telling them. I am convinced, that Thailand needs more democracy, lots of it, but that drive will not come from Toxin or the red shirts, nor the blue shirts or the yellow shirts. As long as such "movements" are led by corrupt politicians, there is no future in any of the action. And btw I would reject the notion, that Toxin came to power in a democratic way. In 2000 he called for all the corrupt politicians, offering 30 to 50 million Baht each as 'campaign support' and they all came, from all parties... Quite frankly I’m glad it’s over, even though I took a holiday from Songkran and followed things from Cambodia.

However I think we have a basic problem here with the Reds: I can’t recall anything they wanted, that was not directly related to Toxin being able to come back and continue his defrauding of the nation. And vice versa I think without Toxin’s money they would not have been coming to Bangkok/Pattaya in these numbers. So until they come up with something, that is requesting genuinely democratic improvements I see them as a bunch of upcountry hooligans, who enjoyed it to come to the big town and create a mess and being paid for it. I doubt there is any political awareness among them as to what they want beside Toxin to come back. I talked to a bunch of Red-shirt taxi drivers and they only proved this. If you tell them, that they shot themselves in their foot, because now a lot less tourists will come and thus they will have less passengers, they just laughed it of,- that kind of helpless laugh of people, who just don’t understand, what you are telling them.

I am convinced, that Thailand needs more democracy, lots of it, but that drive will not come from Toxin or the red shirts, nor the blue shirts or the yellow shirts. As long as such “movements” are led by corrupt politicians, there is no future in any of the action. And btw I would reject the notion, that Toxin came to power in a democratic way. In 2000 he called for all the corrupt politicians, offering 30 to 50 million Baht each as ‘campaign support’ and they all came, from all parties…

]]> By: Rich http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-602 Rich Fri, 17 Apr 2009 03:21:12 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-602 Nigel, I agree. I think Jakrapob is a guy to watch. I also agree with Kwai Jok Foong; this is not the end, it is a beginning and (call me a conspiracy theorist!) I think that the Reds know the only way this will end is in civil war - I have been saying it in the blogosphere for a year now. Thus it would not surprise me if arms caches have been built up - though have no evidence for or against. Changes on the scale that need to happen do not occur without the people rising up, I have never heard of a wealthy elite voluntarily relinquishing their power. In Thailand as elsewhere it will be taken from their cold dead hands. This is a shame, it is unnecessary but I am afraid, inevitable. It seems to be that Thaksin has either transformed himself from a corrupt business man into a social reformer, or is in the process of reinventing himself thus. The authorities appear not to have understood this and that is a big mistake. However much of a shit he is, he will be trying to cast off the corrupt business man image in preparation for acceding to popular acclaim to become [... CENSORED...] Dull it isn't. Rich Nigel, I agree. I think Jakrapob is a guy to watch. I also agree with Kwai Jok Foong; this is not the end, it is a beginning and (call me a conspiracy theorist!) I think that the Reds know the only way this will end is in civil war – I have been saying it in the blogosphere for a year now. Thus it would not surprise me if arms caches have been built up – though have no evidence for or against.

Changes on the scale that need to happen do not occur without the people rising up, I have never heard of a wealthy elite voluntarily relinquishing their power. In Thailand as elsewhere it will be taken from their cold dead hands. This is a shame, it is unnecessary but I am afraid, inevitable.

It seems to be that Thaksin has either transformed himself from a corrupt business man into a social reformer, or is in the process of reinventing himself thus. The authorities appear not to have understood this and that is a big mistake. However much of a shit he is, he will be trying to cast off the corrupt business man image in preparation for acceding to popular acclaim to become [... CENSORED...]

Dull it isn’t.

Rich

]]> By: Nigel http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-593 Nigel Wed, 15 Apr 2009 22:30:03 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-593 You may be right when you say that Abhisit’s sponsors are the greatest obstacle to democracy in Thailand. Still, I don’t really see the Red Shirt movement leading to any kind of revolutionary change at this point, though I must admit to a degree of ignorance regarding the calibre of their leadership (other than Thaksin, who to me represents everything that is currently wrong with Thailand). I had considered Jakrapob Penkair to be Thaksin’s glove puppet, but I’m beginning to wonder if he’s actually the puppet master. I would be interested to hear any informed opinions on the leaders of the Red Shirts. Without oustanding leadership, they are likely to remain a bunch of headless chickens going nowhere. You may be right when you say that Abhisit’s sponsors are the greatest obstacle to democracy in Thailand. Still, I don’t really see the Red Shirt movement leading to any kind of revolutionary change at this point, though I must admit to a degree of ignorance regarding the calibre of their leadership (other than Thaksin, who to me represents everything that is currently wrong with Thailand). I had considered Jakrapob Penkair to be Thaksin’s glove puppet, but I’m beginning to wonder if he’s actually the puppet master. I would be interested to hear any informed opinions on the leaders of the Red Shirts. Without oustanding leadership, they are likely to remain a bunch of headless chickens going nowhere.

]]> By: KWAI JOK FOONG ควายโจกฝูง http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-592 KWAI JOK FOONG ควายโจกฝูง Wed, 15 Apr 2009 16:12:01 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-592 In this case, the Red Shirts are a "marginal and relatively ineffective" group. To be sure, if you have millions of people in the streets and much of the country behind you, this would be a different story. But it's important to keep in mind that so far the Red Shirts have, at best, been able to mobilize only about 100,000 people --- a fairly paltry crowd in a country the size of Thailand. Under the circumstances, at a time when the Red Shirts have yet to earn the support they need to pose a real "revolutionary" threat (as they would say), any episode of violence is likely to badly damage their reputation, alienate much of the local population, and afford the government the opportunity to restore "order" through its usual brutality. The events of the last couple of days are an important lesson in this sense. As the Red Shirts became increasingly violent, the government grew in a stronger position to crack down. The locals turned on them, while the propagandists of the regime grew louder at home and more credible abroad. And, as the troops advanced through Bangkok, the number of Red Shirts in the streets dwindled so rapidly that by the time they surrendered only 2-3000 people remained at Government House. In this case, the Red Shirts are a “marginal and relatively ineffective” group. To be sure, if you have millions of people in the streets and much of the country behind you, this would be a different story. But it’s important to keep in mind that so far the Red Shirts have, at best, been able to mobilize only about 100,000 people — a fairly paltry crowd in a country the size of Thailand. Under the circumstances, at a time when the Red Shirts have yet to earn the support they need to pose a real “revolutionary” threat (as they would say), any episode of violence is likely to badly damage their reputation, alienate much of the local population, and afford the government the opportunity to restore “order” through its usual brutality. The events of the last couple of days are an important lesson in this sense. As the Red Shirts became increasingly violent, the government grew in a stronger position to crack down. The locals turned on them, while the propagandists of the regime grew louder at home and more credible abroad. And, as the troops advanced through Bangkok, the number of Red Shirts in the streets dwindled so rapidly that by the time they surrendered only 2-3000 people remained at Government House.

]]> By: Erick http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-591 Erick Wed, 15 Apr 2009 14:25:23 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-591 Strategically what you say makes sense. But thinking back over the last 40 plus years of political movements in Thailand, it is hard to recall any political movement that was able to resist provocation and violence in the pursuit of political power. Which is to say, what exactly are the ideological, organizational and political prospects and possibilities of a movement seeking 'revolutionary' change through the means of non-violent protests and resistance? Typically, it seems to me, non-violence is the strategic choice of groups who are marginal or relatively ineffective. While those that sense they have a shot at seizing the architecture of power are more than willing to use a bit of violence, subversion and deception when it seems useful and necessary, from their perspective. I also suppose much of this depends up what exactly folks mean by 'revolutionary' change. That word has been tossed around a good bit more in the last week or so, but its substantive content is often left vague. Revolutionary in the sense of the rule of constitutional democratic parliamentary rules, in terms of the relations between the executive, legislative and judicial branches, in terms of the relations between capital and labor, or in terms of the role, influence and status of the monarchy and palace. Strategically what you say makes sense. But thinking back over the last 40 plus years of political movements in Thailand, it is hard to recall any political movement that was able to resist provocation and violence in the pursuit of political power. Which is to say, what exactly are the ideological, organizational and political prospects and possibilities of a movement seeking ‘revolutionary’ change through the means of non-violent protests and resistance? Typically, it seems to me, non-violence is the strategic choice of groups who are marginal or relatively ineffective. While those that sense they have a shot at seizing the architecture of power are more than willing to use a bit of violence, subversion and deception when it seems useful and necessary, from their perspective.

I also suppose much of this depends up what exactly folks mean by ‘revolutionary’ change. That word has been tossed around a good bit more in the last week or so, but its substantive content is often left vague. Revolutionary in the sense of the rule of constitutional democratic parliamentary rules, in terms of the relations between the executive, legislative and judicial branches, in terms of the relations between capital and labor, or in terms of the role, influence and status of the monarchy and palace.

]]> By: KWAI JOK FOONG ควายโจกฝูง http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-589 KWAI JOK FOONG ควายโจกฝูง Wed, 15 Apr 2009 11:47:38 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-589 Erick: I have no contacts of any kind among any Thai politicians or dissidents (on either side), so I have no information about whether these revelations are true or could be true. But I will say this. First, I think the claim is plausible in the sense that, from what I know of the red shirts and their leaders, I can at least imagine them doing such a thing. Second, I think of Mr. Crispin as a highly credible, responsible journalist, so I have no reason to doubt that the information was relayed to him by a well-placed source. The question is whether the well-placed source really knows what he's talking about or might be deliberately making this stuff up --- for vanity or in a calculated effort to exaggerate the threat posed by the red shirts. True or not, though, to openly raise the prospect of a civil war is a very risky strategy on their part because it offers the authorities the pretext to harshly suppress the movement. As for "how non-violent should the red shirts be in their call for change," my answer would be "as non-violent as they can." Right now, the biggest problem for the red shirts is to: 1) Reclaim democratic legitimacy; and 2) Get people in both the provinces and in Bangkok to attend their demonstrations in far larger numbers than they have so far. Purely as a strategic matter, to resort to violence or threaten civil war strikes me as suicidal on both of these counts. Erick: I have no contacts of any kind among any Thai politicians or dissidents (on either side), so I have no information about whether these revelations are true or could be true. But I will say this. First, I think the claim is plausible in the sense that, from what I know of the red shirts and their leaders, I can at least imagine them doing such a thing. Second, I think of Mr. Crispin as a highly credible, responsible journalist, so I have no reason to doubt that the information was relayed to him by a well-placed source. The question is whether the well-placed source really knows what he’s talking about or might be deliberately making this stuff up — for vanity or in a calculated effort to exaggerate the threat posed by the red shirts. True or not, though, to openly raise the prospect of a civil war is a very risky strategy on their part because it offers the authorities the pretext to harshly suppress the movement. As for “how non-violent should the red shirts be in their call for change,” my answer would be “as non-violent as they can.” Right now, the biggest problem for the red shirts is to: 1) Reclaim democratic legitimacy; and 2) Get people in both the provinces and in Bangkok to attend their demonstrations in far larger numbers than they have so far. Purely as a strategic matter, to resort to violence or threaten civil war strikes me as suicidal on both of these counts.

]]> By: Erick http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-586 Erick Wed, 15 Apr 2009 09:41:13 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-586 The Crispin piece raises an interesting question or two. What do you make of his claim of the stockpiling of small arms in Isan? Credible? And if true, a positive or negative development? Which is also to ask, just how non-violent should the red shirts be in their call for change, even 'revolutionary' change as some of the leaders now put it? The Crispin piece raises an interesting question or two. What do you make of his claim of the stockpiling of small arms in Isan? Credible? And if true, a positive or negative development? Which is also to ask, just how non-violent should the red shirts be in their call for change, even ‘revolutionary’ change as some of the leaders now put it?

]]> By: maverick263 http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-584 maverick263 Wed, 15 Apr 2009 06:54:17 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-584 just for sharing... here's an excellent piece of reporting & analysis by Crispin @ asia times online. really, a rare gem. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD15Ae03.html just for sharing…

here’s an excellent piece of reporting & analysis by Crispin @ asia times online. really, a rare gem.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Southeast_Asia/KD15Ae03.html

]]> By: African Nomad http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-582 African Nomad Wed, 15 Apr 2009 06:16:23 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-582 The time for a people's revolution & restoration of power to the people will eventually come - it invariably does. After the dust & smoke has cleared, it will be interesting to watch how quickly the current overlords become willing servants to their new masters. Then begins their climb up the newly-formed ladders of power. These kinds of opportunist cockroaches always find a way to survive when the game changes. The time for a people’s revolution & restoration of power to the people will eventually come – it invariably does.

After the dust & smoke has cleared, it will be interesting to watch how quickly the current overlords become willing servants to their new masters. Then begins their climb up the newly-formed ladders of power. These kinds of opportunist cockroaches always find a way to survive when the game changes.

]]> By: KWAI JOK FOONG ควายโจกฝูง http://khikwai.com/blog/2009/04/14/twilight-of-the-idols/comment-page-1/#comment-580 KWAI JOK FOONG ควายโจกฝูง Wed, 15 Apr 2009 05:13:09 +0000 http://khikwai.com/blog/?p=313#comment-580 Nigel: I agree. In previous posts, I have gone to some lengths to detail Thaksin's misdeeds and urge the red shirts to throw him under the bus. At the end of the day, however, I consider Abhisit's patrons a much greater impediment to democratization. Thaksin could have been ultimately thrown out by the people through the electoral process. Those who have put Abhisit in power cannot. Nigel: I agree. In previous posts, I have gone to some lengths to detail Thaksin’s misdeeds and urge the red shirts to throw him under the bus. At the end of the day, however, I consider Abhisit’s patrons a much greater impediment to democratization. Thaksin could have been ultimately thrown out by the people through the electoral process. Those who have put Abhisit in power cannot.

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